Tuesday, October 29, 2013

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for August reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 1.33% since July while the Composite-20 index also increased 1.32% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and has been rising notably through the more active spring-summer months.

The 10-city composite index increased 12.75% as compared to August 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.82% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices still show significant peak declines slumping -21.01% for the 10-city national index and -20.33% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales September 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales for September showing a decrease of 0.1% from August, and a gain of 3.2% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales also declined 0.1% from August but still increased 2.06% above the level seen in September 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.1% on the month and increased 1.05% since September 2012.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims October 24 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed decreases to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims continued to trend below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 12,000 to 350,000 claims from 362,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 8,000 claims to 2.874 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.32 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.43 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 3.76 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.


Wednesday, October 23, 2013

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: August 2013

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in August, nationally, home prices increased 0.32% from July and rose 8.24% above the level seen in August 2012.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 23 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 4 basis points to 4.27% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 1% and the refinance application volume declined 1% over the same period.

As a result of Fed Chairman Bernanke's abrupt turn-around on the "tapering" issue, rates appear now to be pulling back notably after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Construction Spending: August 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing increase in August with total private construction spending rising since July while single family private residential construction spending and non-residential construction spending also increased on the month.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending increased 1.21% from July climbing 20.46% above the level seen in August 2012 while still remaining a whopping 49.70% below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending increased 1.63% since July rising 30.52% since August 2012 but remained a whopping 63.49% below it's peak in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 0.13% since July climbing 1.61% above the level seen in August 2012 and remained a whopping 29.56% below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.



Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation September 2013

Today’s Employment Situation Report indicated that in September, net non-farm payrolls increased by 148,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 126,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined to 7.2% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.11% since last month climbing 2.04% above the level seen a year ago but remained 1.09% below the peak level of employment seen in December 2007.

Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration September 2013


Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed improved in September while still remaining distressed by historic standards.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 4.146 million or 36.9% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment declined to 16.3 weeks and the average stay on unemployment increased to 36.9 weeks.

Looking at the charts below (click for super interactive versions) you can see that today’s sorry situation far exceeds even the conditions seen during the double-dip recessionary period of the early 1980s, long considered by economists to be the worst period of unemployment since the Great Depression.



On The Margin: Total Unemployment September 2013

Today's Employment Situation report showed that in September “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 13.6% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate dropped to 7.2%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Inequality According to Reich


Inequality for All, Robert Reich's recently released documentary detailing his views on the state of income distribution in America, is best understood when considering that its perspective comes, ironically, from a man whose diminutive physical stature is firmly rooted within a statistically rare outlier region of the normal distribution.
 
But before you jump to accusations of insensitivity or mean spiritedness, Reich’s height, while not the centerpiece of his movie by any means, is routinely referenced throughout the film and even used as a device to, quite dramatically, communicate his motives for standing up for the little guy and against the bullying of social inequality.

In fact, the film plays somewhat like a Keynesian policy junkies version of Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth, in that it concerns itself more with Reich’s own character and background than the topic it is purported to address, leaving the viewer with little more than a fabricated sense of heroism for Reich and a smattering of contrived charts and statistics.

Further, while Reich does a reasonable job framing issues surrounding income inequality and, in particular, identifying globalization and the demise of a legitimate manufacturing workforce in the U.S. as being some primary instigators, many of his explanations for this major structural trend were deceitful and preposterous.

With literally no mention of the impact of the 1990s Clinton-era push for free trade (NAFTA, GATT, etc.), Reich ignores the policies of the administration he served under, only to blame the demise of union influence on the Regan-era handling of the air traffic controllers strike… a outlandish line of faulty logic only made sensible when considering Reich’s commitment to his particular ideological bent.

Make no mistake; Reich is a statist of the worst order, committed to twisting any sample of economic data, academic study or anecdotal experience into his supposedly sound reasoning for ever more “solutions” by the central government.

And therein lies a bit of a rub for this film in that Reich offers scant new “solutions” of his own, instead advancing the typical lip service themes of “investing in the people”, by providing more public funding for education, more social benefits and ultimately more redistribution of wealth.

Considering that Federal Government overspending has generated a national debt of roughly $17 trillion ( … with about $7 trillion of that racked up in just the last five years) blowing way over 100% debt-to-GDP and requiring an $85 billion monthly injection of “new” money from the Federal Reserve each and every month just to keep the ship-of-state afloat, this “under-investment” theme should fall flat for most clear thinking viewers.

Bottom line, inequality is a fact of life in a free society and short of instances of systemic illegal unfairness (nepotism, red-lining, bribery, etc.) there is no solution to the Bell Curve as it relates to economic matters.

The normal distribution is more than a statistical quirk; it’s a mathematical certainty that should argue strongly against enacting endless absurd schemes that seek to “spread the wealth” in an effort to thwart reality.

Like Reich’s own minuscule size, there are aspects of life that we all must accept, for better or worse, as luck of the draw… and while most personal economic circumstances can be naturally overcome by individual effort on one hand or temporarily ( … and artificially) mitigated by blunt state policies rife with unintended consequences on the other, there will always be winners and losers.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims October 17 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed decreases to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims continued to trend below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 15,000 to 358,000 claims from 373,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 43,000 claims to 2.859 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.37 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.47 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 3.85 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.


Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings October 2013

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assessments of housing activity eased in October with the composite HMI index falling to 55 while the "buyer traffic" index slumped to a level of 44.

It's important to note that while the last few months results have suggested a pullback of sorts for home builder activity, the latest trend has been very strong and consistent with the overall recovery seen in the nation's housing markets.  

Looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last year of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.




Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 16 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 3 basis points to 4.31% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 5% and the refinance application volume increased 3% over the same period.

As a result of Fed Chairman Bernanke's abrupt turn-around on the "tapering" issue, rates appear now to be pulling back notably after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




Thursday, October 10, 2013

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims October 10 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable increase to initial unemployment claims and a decline to continued jobless claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims jumped to 374K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 66,000 to 374,000 claims from 308,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 16,000 claims to 2.905 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.44 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.51 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 3.95 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.


Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 10 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined a 6 basis points to 4.28% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 1% and the refinance application volume increased 3% over the same period.

As a result of Fed Chairman Bernanke's abrupt turn-around on the "tapering" issue, rates appear now to be pulling back notably after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




Tuesday, October 08, 2013

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices July 2013

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in July, the price of residential properties increased 0.08% since June rising 17.95% above the level seen in July 2012.

Clearly, the slight pullback in prices seen late 2012 has been completely surpassed by another, notable leg up.

With the prior late-90s era peak having been bested handily by the latest price run up, it will be interesting to see how long this period of house price inflation can run.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

Thursday, October 03, 2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: September 2013

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity slowed in September with the overall non-manufacturing index falling to 54.4 from last months reading of 58.6.

At 55.1 the business activity index plunged since last month declining 7.55% below the level seen a year earlier.

This month, service industry respondents are sounding a bit down with respondents citing slowing activity, flat business and uncertainty over healthcare costs:

"Overall business conditions are slowing — small manpower decrease of 5 percent." (Construction)

"Business levels continue to be strong. Shifting from transient to group travelers." (Accommodation & Food Services)

"Increased activity following summer vacations, but several postponements as well. Clients still unsure about the economy and business costs (e.g., healthcare)." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"The federal government's spending is increasing greatly as agencies execute their final budgets and utilize fiscal year 2013 appropriated funds prior to their expiration on September 30th. This has caused a major increase in procurement activity for goods and services. Budgets are uncertain for fiscal year 2014, so some items requiring funding in future years are not being purchased." (Public Administration)

"Business has leveled off — not much in the way of growth." (Retail Trade)

"Some pick-up in sequential sales growth, but still flat with last year." (Wholesale Trade)